[에너지신문] 21 December 2015 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downward its global demand forecast for coal by over 500 Mtce and expects coal consumption to increase by 0.8%/year over the 2015-2020 period to 5,814 Mtce.
Half of this growth (149 Mtce) should occur in India, as China posted a decline in coal consumption in 2014, which is set to accelerate in 2015. Coal demand in China may have reached a peak and is expected to decline through 2020, due to a slower economic growth, the strong rebalancing of the economy (toward less energy-intensive industries) and lower-than-expected power demand (declining electricity use in heavy industry).
The ambitious electrification plans announced by India (provide full electricity access to 240 million people) will fuel coal demand in the country; coal investments are also expected to increase for the same reasons in Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Coal demand will continue to decline in the United States, as existing coal-fired power capacities will be retired and no new coal plants are expected other than those few under construction; consequently, the share of coal in the US power mix will fall below 35% by 2020. In Europe, low coal prices and low Emissions Trading System (ETS)’s carbon prices make coal-fired power plants competitive but stagnating or declining electricity demand is expected to pull coal demand downward (by more than 1.5%/year).
Continuous pressure from shale gas in the United States, strengthened climate policies and the overcapacity and slowdown in China are expected to contribute to the coal glut and record-low coal prices are not expected to recover so far.
-http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy-news-001/iea-expects-slow-growth-global-coal-consumption-2020_35471.html